11.11 is done. Four numbers to check before Black Friday and 12.12

The best time to plan your 12.12 sale is the week after 11.11, while the numbers are fresh and outlet managers still remember why things happened. Pull four numbers from 11.11: the uplift you actually got against plan, by item and hour; how long promoted items were out of stock at each outlet; the promo-day food cost gap and waste; and what each promo order really made after discounts, packaging and platform fees. Then plan Black Friday and 12.12 from those numbers.

The calendar leaves little room. Black Friday falls on Friday 27 November and 12.12 on Saturday 12 December. The year-end school holidays run from 5 to 31 December in most states, and from 4 December in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, according to the Ministry of Education’s 2026 school calendar. That is three demand events in five weeks, each with a different shape.

Customers are still spending, but carefully: BMI expects household spending to grow about 4.1% in 2026 and names food and fuel prices as the biggest worry, Malay Mail reported. Offers will be compared closely, and so should their cost.

What is a post-promotion analysis?

A post-promotion analysis is a review, done within days of a promotion, that compares what was planned with what actually happened, by item, outlet, hour and channel, and turns the gaps into changes for the next promotion. A sales report says 11.11 was a good day. A post-promotion analysis says which outlets ran out at 1.40 pm, what the extra orders cost to make, and what to change before Black Friday.

If you followed our plan for the 11.11 promo spike, you set a low, expected and high scenario before the day. The analysis tells you which one you landed in, and where.

Which 11.11 sales numbers matter most?

Four numbers cover most of what the next promotion needs. Pull each by outlet and hour, not as a network total.

Number	How to calculate it	What it changes for 12.12
Uplift against plan	Promoted item units sold ÷ normal units for the same weekday and hours, compared with your low, expected and high scenarios	The scenario you plan for, outlet by outlet
Availability	The time each promoted item sold out at each outlet, and the stock left at close	Temporary par levels, top-up timing and transfers
Promo-day food cost gap and waste	Actual usage minus recipe usage for promoted items on the day, plus recorded waste with reasons	Portioning, prep quantities and the packing-station setup
Margin per promo order	Price after discount, minus recipe cost, packaging, and platform commission or co-funded discounts, by channel	Which channels and offer mechanics to repeat

Uplift against plan. Compare promoted item sales with the same weekday over the last four to six normal weeks, and check the rest of the menu too. A deal that lifted the set meal but pulled customers away from higher-margin dishes looks better in the promo report than in the P&L.

Availability. A stock-out at 1.40 pm and one at 8.30 pm are very different results. Multiply the promo hours left after each stock-out by that outlet’s run rate for a rough count of lost sales, then see which outlets closed with stock left over. An outlet that sold out while a neighbour two kilometres away held 40 portions has a transfer problem, not a demand problem.

Promo-day food cost gap and waste. Rush hours stretch portioning, so the extra volume may have cost more than planned. Our piece on portion control shows how quickly small overruns add up. Record end-of-day waste with a reason, so over-production can be separated from spoilage.

Margin per promo order. Work out what each promo order made after the discount, the recipe cost, packaging and, for delivery, commission and any discount you co-funded with the platform. Treat the delivery figure as provisional until payout statements arrive. As we covered in the order you sold is not the revenue you banked, the two rarely match.

Pull them this week, while the reasons are fresh

The data will keep. The explanations won’t: by next week nobody at Outlet 7 will remember that the rice cooker failed at noon.

Close the day first. Post every transfer and receipt, record the waste, and return temporary par levels to normal before you pull anything.

Ask the outlets about the outliers. For each outlet far above or below plan, get a one-line reason from the manager this week. A number without a reason is hard to plan from.

Mark what you can’t trust. If three outlets didn’t log waste on the day, say so in the debrief rather than averaging them in.

A hypothetical debrief

Take a hypothetical 12-outlet chicken rice brand that ran an 11.11 set meal from 11 am to 3 pm. Its plan assumed roughly double the normal set-meal volume at every outlet.

• The five mall outlets sold about 2.6 times normal volume and ran out between 1.30 pm and 2 pm.
• The four neighbourhood outlets sold about 1.4 times normal and closed with marinated chicken left over.
• Actual chicken usage on the set ran about 8% above recipe at the busiest outlets, mostly at the packing station.
• After the discount, packaging and commission, a delivery set made roughly half the margin of a dine-in set.

None of this showed in the headline result, a strong day. Each line changes the next plan: separate uplift figures for mall and neighbourhood outlets, a morning transfer from the neighbourhood outlets to the malls, a portion scoop at the packing station, and a decision on whether delivery gets the same deal at 12.12. The figures are illustrative.

How should 11.11 shape your 12.12 sale plan?

Use the measured uplift, but don’t copy it straight across. 11.11 fell on a Wednesday in a school week. 12.12 falls on a Saturday a week into the school holidays, when mall and neighbourhood outlets may both start from a different baseline. Apply the 11.11 uplift to each outlet’s holiday-Saturday baseline, not a weekday one. For many groups 12.12 also opens the year-end sales season (jualan akhir tahun) that runs to New Year, so the plan has to hold for weeks. Black Friday on 27 November comes first, and is a different day again: a Friday at the end of the month.

Reset the scenario table. Replace last month’s assumed scenarios with the ones 11.11 produced, by outlet type.

Move par levels to where the stock-outs were. Raise temporary pars at the outlets that ran out early and lower them where stock was left over. Our guide to par levels across an outlet network covers scaling them to each outlet’s own baseline.

Agree transfers in advance. If one group of outlets runs out while another has stock left, book a transfer for the morning of the next sale, not mid-service.

Choose the mechanic by margin, not by headline sales. If a delivery deal sold well but made little, test a different mechanic for 12.12, such as a smaller discount, a higher minimum order, or a bundle built on components you already hold.

Where RMS and the AI-Kitchen Command Center fit

Codemax RMS (Resource Management System) records most of these numbers as the day runs. Live POS sync and live stock-on-hand show when each outlet ran out of a promoted item and which outlets still held stock. Recipes and multi-level BOMs give every sale a theoretical usage, so theoretical-versus-actual variance and wastage on promoted items are ready by outlet the next morning. For the next sale, purchase-order quantities are recommended from par levels and POS data, production is planned against rolling outlet demand, and inter-branch transfers move stock to where it ran short.

The AI-Kitchen Command Center watches every outlet, product and shift against its own baseline, so an outlet running far ahead of or behind the others is flagged on the day, while there is still time to act. Its AI agent chat answers questions such as “which outlets sold out of the set before 2 pm on 11.11?” in plain language, with the underlying records traceable. A narrative debrief can go out by email, WhatsApp, Slack or Microsoft Teams the morning after.

Questions worth asking before Black Friday

• Which outlets landed above the high scenario on 11.11, and which below the low one?
• At what time did each outlet run out of the promoted item?
• Where did stock sit unsold while a nearby outlet ran out?
• How far did actual usage of the promoted item run above recipe on the day?
• What did a promo order make after discount, packaging and commission, by channel?
• Has the 12.12 plan been rebuilt on a holiday-Saturday baseline?

If the answers are still in people’s heads, write them down this week. By 12.12 they will be gone.

Frequently asked questions

When is 12.12 in 2026?

12.12 falls on Saturday 12 December 2026, a week into the year-end school holidays. The holidays run from 5 to 31 December in most states, and from 4 December in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. Because 12.12 is a holiday Saturday rather than a school-week weekday like 11.11, plan its demand from a holiday-Saturday baseline for each outlet.

When is Black Friday 2026 in Malaysia?

Black Friday 2026 falls on Friday 27 November, the day after the US Thanksgiving holiday. In Malaysia it is mainly a retail and online shopping event, but some F&B brands and delivery platforms run their own offers around it. Check your own promotion plans and your delivery platforms' campaign calendars early, so the kitchen has the same dates as marketing.

What is a post-promotion analysis?

A post-promotion analysis is a review, done within days of a promotion, that compares what was planned with what actually happened, by item, outlet, hour and channel. It covers uplift against plan, stock-outs, food cost and margin per order, and turns the differences into changes for the next promotion, such as new par levels, transfers or a different offer mechanic.

How do you calculate promotion uplift for a restaurant?

Restaurant promotion uplift is the promoted item's sales during the promotion divided by its normal sales for the same weekday and hours, usually averaged over the previous four to six normal weeks. Calculate it by outlet and by hour, not only as a network total, and check whether the rest of the menu rose or fell at the same time.

How do you know if a restaurant promotion was profitable?

A restaurant promotion was profitable if the margin on the extra orders, after the discount, recipe cost, packaging and any delivery commission or co-funded platform discount, outweighed what the business would have made without it. Work out margin per promo order by channel, compare it with normal margin, and treat delivery figures as provisional until payout statements arrive.

Sources

1. Malaysians will keep spending, but pricier groceries and loan bills could sting — Malay Mail, 4 Nov 2026
2. Here's the 2026 school holidays as announced by the Education Ministry — SAYS, 29 Oct 2025